While announced foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in the US have experienced substantial growth so far in 2025, capital expenditure (capex) has fallen and is projected to decrease further during the rest of the year, according to a new report.
GlobalData’s FDI Trends in North America (2025) report states: “The US’ current FDI outlook is defined by a divergence in announced and opened greenfield FDI, while Canada’s ability to attract FDI lies in substituting or appeasing (more aggressive) US relations.”
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In the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025), announced inward greenfield FDI projects experienced a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 8.3%. However, in the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), opened inward greenfield FDI projects declined YoY by 11.4%.
As investment announcements in the US continue to make headlines with quantities upwards of $100bn, the report’s findings reflect a wider critique that these commitments are misleading as they are not likely to actualise themselves.
The report cites sudden changes in tax and subsidy regimes as negatively impacting investor sentiment and “lowering project viability”. For example, many clean energy incentives that originated with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are now being downsized and undermined by cuts outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Given that Canada’s FDI landscape is “intrinsically linked to the US”, economic uncertainty is also affecting foreign investment flows into the country. The US made up 45% of announced FDI projects in Canada between 2023 and Q2 2025, making it the top originator of the country’s inflows.
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By GlobalDataNorth America’s share of opened greenfield FDI projects increased by 1% from 2024 to H1 2025, according to GlobalData’s FDI Database. Since the pandemic, the number of opened FDI projects has increased substantially, from 818 in 2021 to 1,380 in 2024. These projects occurred in a wide range of sectors including pharmaceutical, semiconductor, energy and auto. In the US, legislation such as the IRA and the Chips and Science Act were central to attracting this investment.
“Furthermore, when extrapolating projects opened in H1 2025, North America is forecasted to invert on its upward FDI trend. However, capex invested in announced FDI projects is accelerating,” the report notes.
It warns that Canada’s over-reliance on the US for foreign investment could “leave their FDI market venerable, given the now weakened US market”. On the other hand, the US’ FDI sources are more diverse, topped by the UK but then closely followed by Germany, Japan, Canada and South Korea.
“Faster regulatory approvals and lower digital compliance risks established in the UK-US ‘Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) – signed 16 June – will help translate announced projects into opened,” the report suggests.
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