As war proliferates in Iran and the Middle East, US President Donald Trump has been open about his ideal scenario, drawing parallels with the operation in Venezuela in early January that led to the capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro.
“What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect, the perfect scenario,” the president has said. Since then, the US has outlined a three-stage plan for the country: stabilisation, recovery and eventual transition (although no time frame has been set for elections). Attracting foreign investment has thus become a top priority.
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Soon after Maduro’s capture by US forces, the CEO of US oil major ExxonMobil declared the country “uninvestable”. Two months later, the company announced it is sending technical teams into Venezuela to explore the conditions under which it would be willing to return.
“It has definitely exceeded the quite reserved expectations that most analysts would have voiced in the days following Maduro’s removal,” Paul Hasselbrinck, senior energy analyst at GlobalData, tells Investment Monitor.
Exxon’s change of attitude likely has to do with a few factors: violence did not break out following the US incursion; legislative reforms have come quicker than expected; and the US has loosened sanctions and provided some security assurances to foreign companies.
Recently, Chevron and Shell closed in one of the first major oil production deals in Venezuela since 3 January, reported Reuters. Chevron, which was the sole US company with a presence in the country before the US incursion, has reached a preliminary agreement with Venezuelan energy authorities to expand its largest oil project in the country, Pretropiar, in the Orinoco Belt (where oil production and mining efforts have concentrated over the years).
While the details of Shell’s oil agreements with Venezuela were not immediately made clear, Reuters learned that the company intends to develop the Carito and Pirital fields in the east of the country. These are some of the few areas of Venezuela that produce light and medium crude and natural gas, which are needed by oil companies to facilitate exports of the country’s heavier crude.
Quick to reform
Since 3 January, legislative reforms have come from both Venezuela’s interim government and from the US.
In late January, the Venezuelan parliament moved forward with a proposal to loosen state control over the oil industry. The reforms to the hydrocarbons law open up the oil sector to more involvement by foreign actors, as it enables commercialisation by private companies, the opening of bank accounts in other currencies and jurisdictions, and more permissions for minority partners in joint ventures with the state oil firm, PDVSA, to have operational and technical power.
On 9 March, the National Assembly approved a new mining law, which would replace a decades-long framework and bolster legal guarantees for investors as it expands independent mediation and arbitration processes for dispute resolution when domestic legal pathways have been exhausted.
While many US sanctions remain in place, the country is granting companies more waivers in the form of general licences to operate in Venezuela. These have also been expanded as the conflict between the US and Iran expands, risking the world’s oil and fertiliser supply.
On one hand, the quick pace of legislative reform, along with visits to Venezuela by top US officials such as Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, are a positive sign for foreign companies considering reentering Venezuela. However, despite the ousting of Maduro, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez represents the same government that oversaw the country’s economic decline.
“They find themselves in a real pickle, because the current regime in Venezuela has the full support of the US, but whether that is enough to provide assurances and trust – the key word – is up for debate,” Hasselbrinck notes.
Another political shift in the licences, he notes, touches on China’s influence in the country. “Many licences that were granted by the regime while there were sanctions on Venezuela have now been revoked and are suspended pending review,” which will mainly affect US adversaries such as China.
Even in the best-case scenario, Hasselbrinck points out, getting back to the high levels of production seen in 2013 or 2014, when the country was producing three million barrels a day, is still likely a few years away.
Questions of debts and arrears unresolved
While facilitating the flow of investment has been the priority over the past few months, little has been done to address Venezuela’s widespread debts and arrears. The country’s sovereign debt alone is estimated at $150bn (67.28tn bolivars)–170bn, along with some decades-long claims from producers such as Exxon and ConocoPhillips, whose assets were nationalised under Hugo Chavez’s presidency.
Following Maduro’s capture, the US initially set up an account in Qatar – managed by the US – to receive funds from Venezuela’s oil revenues. Wright has said that the money is not flowing through Qatar anymore but through the US Treasury.
“Segregating the funds away from bondholders is part of the US hope to stabilise and revive the Venezuelan economy,” Rachel Ziemba, founder of geoeconomics advisory Ziemba Insights, tells Investment Monitor, “but it does make it more difficult for Venezuela to attract foreign direct investment and debt capital.”
Wright and other US officials have said this explicitly, highlighting that, while it is important that creditors “get their money back”, initial revenues need to “urgently” go to repairing basic infrastructure in Venezuela.
“The Trump administration has sent the message that the best way to get repaid or to get money out is to put more money in. If you are a player that has been out of the country for a decade, that may not sound like the most attractive proposition,” Ziemba adds. There is also some debate about what debts should be addressed, since some claims are more than two decades old.
Investor trips and on-the-ground reality
While reforms have been faster than expected, Ziemba notes that it is still early days. The companies that have shown the most interest and commitments either already have a presence in Venezuela, like Chevron, or have had one in the past. Fresh players are still waiting to understand the exact terms and conditions under which they would be operating, especially since a lot of these companies are publicly traded, Ziemba notes.
“They have to go to the board and they have to pitch investment, potentially in Venezuela, compared to money that is at stake somewhere else in the world,” she says.
There are a series of investor trips to Venezuela in the next few weeks and months, where companies, hedge fund managers and others will be scouting for investment opportunities and meeting with top officials.
Many investors may face a reality check on the ground. Much of Venezuela’s professional workforce – particularly those who worked in the oil sector – emigrated as part of the eight million people who have fled the country. As of 2025, the country’s poverty rate is 78.4%, with 56.8% living in extreme poverty. Electricity outages are still commonplace following decades of mismanagement and corruption.
Ironically, the same government that presided over the country’s economic spiral is the same one now opening the doors to investors, minus one strongman leader and plus US support and supervision. Hopes for a democratic transition are also still high amongst citizens. The question of what should be prioritised when trying to rebuild a country – economic stimulus, stability, democratic transition, humanitarian needs – is being answered in real time.
